Is Ukraine really winning?

Many western commentators are misreading the four-year-old conflict. It is Russia — not Ukraine — that retains the strategic advantage.

The dominant Western narrative is that Ukraine has seized the initiative and that Russia is increasingly on the defensive.

Journalist Peter Hartcher advanced that case in the Sydney Morning Herald this week. http://smh.com.au/world/north-america/dumb-and-dumber-trump-and-putin-are-both-losing-wars-to-smaller-enemies-20260727-p60iuu.html Professor Robert Pape of the University of Chicago has made a similar argument, both on “Switzerland” and elsewhere.

A recent UK Daily Telegraph headline neatly captures the prevailing mood:

“Drones are helping Ukraine turn tables on Putin who seems to have no answer.”

I remain unconvinced.

A more sober reading of the evidence suggests that, however slowly and at considerable cost, Moscow retains the strategic advantage.

On the battlefield, Russian forces continue to make incremental but consistent gains. Their advances are measured in kilometres rather than headlines, yet they are advances nonetheless. Barring an unexpected reversal, Russia appears well placed to consolidate control over the Donbas over the coming months.

Ukraine, by contrast, faces mounting structural challenges. As John Mearsheimer has argued on “Switzerland” and elsewhere, Ukraine’s armed forces are contending with acute manpower shortages, persistent reports of desertions and draft evasion, and the unavoidable demographic reality that it is drawing from a much smaller population than Russia. No wonder Ukrainian defensive positions are coming under sustained strain.

Equally significant is the Russian campaign against Odesa. Repeated strikes have severely disrupted the city’s role as Ukraine’s principal maritime gateway, constraining the country’s ability to export grain and import the goods, equipment and military supplies on which its economy and war effort depend. The strategic consequences of degrading Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea could prove profound.

The strains are becoming visible not only at the battle front, but also in Kyiv. A succession of senior dismissals and cabinet reshuffles — including President Zelensky’s controversial decision to sack the defence minister — have exposed serious tensions within Ukraine’s wartime leadership.

All up, these developments suggest that Russia, despite the immense costs it has incurred, occupies the stronger strategic position. That is difficult to reconcile with the increasingly confident claims heard across much of the Western media that Ukraine has decisively turned the tide.

None of this diminishes the extraordinary courage of Volodymyr Zelensky or the resilience of the Ukrainian people. Since February 2022 they have resisted an invasion by a far larger adversary with remarkable determination. Nor does it excuse Russia’s aggression, both in Crimea in 2014 and Ukraine since 2022.

But admiration for Ukraine’s resolve is not the same as an assessment of the military balance. The first is moral judgement; the second is a strategic one. They should not be confused.

History is replete with wars in which public narratives drifted well ahead of battlefield realities. Democracies, no less than autocracies, are susceptible to wishful thinking, especially in protracted conflicts where the stakes are high and the moral sympathies are clear.

The prudent course is to judge this war not by optimistic rhetoric or newspaper headlines, but by the military, economic, political and demographic realities that will ultimately determine its outcome. That does not mean Russia is bent on conquering and occupying all of Ukraine: that was never the Kremlin’s objective. Instead, Putin’s goal is to ensure that Ukraine is severely weakened enough that it won’t become a western treaty ally on Russia’s borders. The tragedy of Ukraine is sadly a lesson in Great Power Politics 101.

For more on my contrarian assessments of the Ukraine, read my articles in The Australian in 2024 https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/the-wests-bid-to-expand-nato-eastwards-was-a-mistake/news-story/51c13a5dd27498209637724fa6cb5a4c and 2025 https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/trumps-goal-to-end-ukraine-war-makes-moral-sense/news-story/8762a9e09da9ef2c23fee06f8f5718bd